Recession dating committee

recession dating committee

How does the NBER’s business cycle dating committee identify turning points?

FAQs and additional information on how the NBERs Business Cycle Dating Committee identifies turning points The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions.

What is the NBER chronology of the recession?

A: The NBER chronology does not identify the precise moment that the economy entered a recession or expansion. In the NBER’s convention for measuring the duration of a recession, the first month of the recession is the month following the peak and the last month is the month of the trough.

Was the 1981 recession separate from the one that began in 1980?

For example, our determination that the recession that began in 1981 was separate from the one that began in 1980 was based in part on the extent to which major economic indicators bounced back in late 1980 and early 1981.

How does the committee determine the date of a peak?

In determining the date of a peak in activity, it waits until it is confident that a recession has occurred. Even in the event that activity began to rise again immediately after the announcement of a peak, the committee would find that a new expansion was underway, and the upturn would not be a continuation of the previous expansion.

What is the basic job of the NBER’s business cycle dating committee?

Q: What is the basic job of the Business Cycle Dating Committee? A: The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the dates of peak and trough months in economic activity.

What is the NBER business cycle chronology?

The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions. A recession is the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point.

How does the committee determine the dates of turning points?

The committees approach to determining the dates of turning points is retrospective. In making its peak and trough announcements, it waits until sufficient data are available to avoid the need for major revisions to the business cycle chronology.

What is the business cycle dating?

A: The Business Cycle Dating Committee was created in 1978, and since then there has been a formal process of announcing the NBER determination of a peak or trough in economic activity. Those announcement dates and accompanying explanations are available here.

Why does the Committee take so long to identify peaks?

Even in the event that activity began to rise again immediately after the announcement of a peak, the committee would find that a new expansion was underway, and the upturn would not be a continuation of the previous expansion. As a result, the committee tends to wait to identify a peak until a number of months after it has actually occurred.

When does the committee determine the peak and trough of expansion?

As a result, the committee tends to wait to identify a peak until a number of months after it has actually occurred. Similarly, in determining the date of a trough, the committee waits until it is confident that an expansion is underway.

How does the NBER’s business cycle dating committee identify turning points?

FAQs and additional information on how the NBERs Business Cycle Dating Committee identifies turning points The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions.

How does the committee determine the dates of turning points?

The committees approach to determining the dates of turning points is retrospective. In making its peak and trough announcements, it waits until sufficient data are available to avoid the need for major revisions to the business cycle chronology.

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